While SADC countries are upbeat about upscaling food production, the region’s climate experts paint a gloomy picture of the impact of climate on agriculture. In September this year, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) issued its 2024/2025 Climate Outlook Report which seemed to confirm the worst fears of many smallholder farmers: the region will continue “to face widespread drought conditions, with delayed onset of rains, prolonged dry spells, and extreme high temperatures resulting in heatwave conditions”.
This came out during the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) held in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital city, in August and brought together climate researchers and policy makers. Among other things, the Forum seeks to strengthen regional cooperation and mitigation of climate uncertainty while also developing robust disaster early warning systems.
“The impacts of climate change have become more apparent in the region through increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events,” Mapolao Mokoena, SADC Director of Infrastructure, told the forum.
“For our farmers to be productive and ensure food security, we need to build resilience to help them mitigate against climate change,” Mapolao said.
“The climate variations, droughts or rainfalls, are something that small-holding farmers are facing and are going to face. Climate change is a fact that is facing us whether we accept it or not, especially here in the SADC region.”
It is news that will not be sweet music to the ears of smallholders already reeling from successive droughts. These projections came only weeks before farmers took to the fields to prepare their land, and for those alert enough to follow SADC press releases, it is enough to make them very troubled.
Across the region, smallholder farmers have been outed for ignoring weather forecasts and following traditional weather cycles despite evidence of changing climate. This has only resulted in empty silos and broken hearts, with reports that some frustrated smallholders have given up farming altogether.
The reliability of meteorological services in some countries in the region have also been brought to question, further complicating agriculture production. SADC has already put out its begging bowl and launched a USD5 billion humanitarian appeal to fed millions affected by drought. It has been estimated that this year 67,7 million people will require food assistance, and coupled with the gloomy weather outlook, that number could increase during the 2024/25 cropping season.
According to the 2024/2025 Climate Outlook Report, it aims to encourage SADC member states to enhance their national meteorological and hydrological services to effectively implement the National Framework for Water and Climate Services. The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum is held once every two years, giving governments time to respond to, assess and identifying climate variability.
Though governments have been urged to equip national meteorological and hydrological services to continuously tor weather and climate risks, they have nevertheless been found wanting in building resilience for smallholder farmers.
The regional climate outlook paints a picture of continued reliance on food exports for the countries facing another round of poor harvests when global marketsare increasingly being disrupted by events such as the war in Ukraine.
The 2024/2025 Climate Outlook report is one of this year’s major highlights for the SADC region’s agriculture,
and it remains to be seen how various stakeholders will respond to its warning.
This also comes after the 44th SADC Summit, where the Heads of State and Government called for national meteorological and hydrological services to continuously monitor weather and climate risks.
They also called on the tracking of the evolution of the La Niña weather phenomenon and develop contingency measures to address the impact of disasters in the region. But as observed by Sithembiso Nyoni, Zimbabwe’s Environment and Climate Minister at the Forum’s gathering of experts and policymakers, climate experts must incorporate additional parameters in their forecasts, such as the rainfall onset and the anticipated cumulative dry days or dry spells. For now, smallholder farmers could use all the help they can get.
