This year’s sugarcane harvest is expected to be 10% lower than average, largely due to unusually drier conditions in the majority of the KwaZulu-Natal’s growing areas.
Since 2020, South Africa’s cane growers produce an average of 18 million tons of sugarcane per season. According to SA Canegrowers projections, this season will yield a crop of under 17 million tons.
The most affected areas are the North Coast, South Coast, and Midlands, but the drier than usual season affected most growers across KwaZulu-Natal. Although Mpumalanga also experienced a drier than normal season, growers in this region irrigate to supplement rainfall. The reduction in load shedding, allowing for uninterrupted and consistent irrigation somewhat offset the poor 2024 growing conditions for Mpumalanga.
“The 2024 season’s reduced yield underscores the increasing vulnerability of our industry to climate pressures, particularly for our rain-fed growers. While we are fortunate to still meet local demand, the reduced export potential impacts our growers’ income and the broader economy,” said Higgins Mdluli, chairman of SA Canegrowers.
The drier growing season yielding less crops has meant that three of the country’s 12 sugar mills have already closed for the crushing season, more than a month ahead of schedule.
Yet, even at this lower yield, the sugar processed from the sugarcane will be more than sufficient to meet South Africa’s local demand. Based on the estimated final sugarcane yield, about 1,9 million tons of sugar will be produced locally this year. South Africa’s domestic and commercial sugar usage in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is approximately 1,5 million tons annually. However, the lower yield means that there will be significantly less South African sugar destined for export markets this year.
Before the Health Promotion Levy (or sugar tax) was introduced in 2018, a normal season would have produced about 20 million tons of sugarcane. The suppressed demand has since contributed to reasons why growers plan to grow less.
As recently recognised by Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen and Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Zuko Godlimpi, there is enormous potential for South Africa’s canegrowers to return to pre-sugar tax levels if diversification strategies, including investment into sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) receive enough support. Sugarcane is an excellent feedstock that could be converted into SAFs, meaning growers do not need to look to alternative crops.
“Since the sugar tax was introduced in 2018, we’ve seen a significant drop in production levels. This means that a year with a further below-average yield put our growers in a precarious position. Many costs were already incurred, and the lower production will affect growers’ financial position. There is a huge opportunity to revitalize the sector through diversification strategies like sustainable aviation fuels, which offer a promising alternative market for our growers. With the right support, we could return to the pre-tax production levels and boost the industry’s resilience,” said Mdluli.
